Commodities Simulation

Commodities simulation where students roll a futures position

The Finsimco Commodities Simulation gives each student four forward curves with different shapes and a position that has to be rolled every month. The spot price then goes nowhere for a quarter, and the four returns differ anyway.

  • About 3 hours, single-player
  • Contango, backwardation and the roll
  • In-class, online or hybrid delivery

At a glance

Duration

About 3 hours

You set every stage timing from the professor panel, so it fits one block or splits across two sessions.

Format

Single-player simulation

Each student holds the curve, roll and position roles in turn and submits one commodity position.

Level

Undergraduate to MBA

Adjustable: one commodity in steady contango, up to storage and convenience yield and a curve that flips.

Professor tools

Timeline and session controls

Manage students, adjust stage timings, control progression and monitor individual inputs.

Prerequisites

Futures contract

Students need to know what a futures contract is. Forward curves, roll yield and convenience yield are taught inside.

Delivery

In class, online or hybrid

The web-based simulation supports in-person, remote, blended and homework-supported delivery.

Assessment

Optional, per student

Every submission is individual, so the roll schedule, the realised return and the review answers export per student.

Course fit

Fits markets modules

Designed for Commodities, Derivatives, Financial Markets, Investments and Energy Finance courses.

Concepts covered

The topics a commodities module has to cover: forward curves: contango and backwardation, roll yield, storage cost and convenience yield, the spot, roll and collateral return, rolling a futures position and physical tightness and the curve.

The two shapes a futures curve can take and what each does to a holder who has to keep rolling. Months to delivery run along the horizontal axis. The upward-sloping curve is contango: each contract further out costs more, so a holder selling the expiring contract and buying the next one pays a little every month, which is a negative roll yield. The downward-sloping curve is backwardation: the far contracts are cheaper, so the same roll earns money. Underneath, a bar chart shows twelve months of roll for both shapes, ending at minus nine per cent and plus seven per cent, and neither figure has anything to do with whether the spot price moved.

The picture that explains the gap between a commodity's price and a commodity investor's return. A futures position has to be rolled: the expiring contract is sold and a later one bought. In contango the later contract costs more, so every roll loses a little and twelve of them lose a lot. In backwardation the later contract is cheaper and the roll pays. The spot price is the same in both panels, and the twelve-month outcomes differ by sixteen percentage points.

Learning outcomes

Written to drop into your module descriptor without rewriting. On completing the simulation, your students will be able to:

  • Read a forward curve and identify contango and backwardation.
  • Explain contango through storage cost, funding and the absence of a convenience yield.
  • Explain backwardation as a signal of physical tightness.
  • Decompose a commodity index return into spot, roll and collateral components.
  • Design a roll schedule and explain the cost of rolling in a contango market.
  • Explain why a commodity investor's return can differ sharply from the commodity's price change.

What students do

Each student runs the desk alone, holding the curve, roll and position roles in turn. All three want something different from the same four curves, and only one position is submitted.

Commodities Simulation gameflow, five stages. Stage 1 Briefing, Role setup, 15 min: Watch intro video, Review the mandate, One student holds all three roles, Review role, goals, and success criteria. Materials: briefing docs, mandate, role cards. Stage 2 Position & Roll, Build the position, 55 min: the curve role read the four curves, explain the shapes, judge the persistence; the roll role choose the contract, set the roll window, price the roll; the position role size the exposure, place the collateral, submit the position. Materials: forward curves, storage data, roll calendar, tool tips. Stage 3 The Curve Flip, Hold the position, 55 min: the curve role track the shape, read the inventories, call the flip; the roll role roll at the new spread, move along the curve, hold or exit; the position role decompose the return, judge the exposure, answer the desk. Materials: live curves, roll costs, inventory data, live scores. Stage 4 Desk Review, Defend the position, 40 min: show the curves, explain the roll, answer on the flip, submit the review. Materials: review questions, position record, return attribution, review pack. Stage 5 Debriefing, Results and feedback, No limit: review your position, compare the rolls, review the attribution, reflect on feedback. Materials: winners, completion summary. Total duration about 3 hours.

The gameflow every student sees before they start. The three roles come into play during the build and the flip; briefing, the desk review and the debrief are worked as a single view. Materials arrive stage by stage: mandate and role cards at briefing, then the forward curves, storage data and roll calendar for the build, then the live curves, roll costs and inventory data once the quarter starts.

Curve

Students read four forward curves, decide what each is saying about storage, carry and physical availability, and judge whether the shape is likely to hold.

Roll

Students choose which contract to hold and when to roll it, knowing that in contango every roll sells cheap and buys expensive.

Position

Students separate the spot return, the roll yield and the collateral return, and say which of the three the position is actually earning.

How it works

Five stages. Students read four forward curves, build a position that must be rolled, then hold it through a quarter in which one curve flips.

  1. 1

    Stage 1 · 15 min

    Briefing Docs · Mandate · Role Cards

    Briefing

    Students watch the intro video, review the desk mandate and take on all three roles, checking the exposure required, the roll policy and the success criteria before any contract is chosen.

  2. 2

    Stage 2 · 55 min

    Forward Curves · Storage Data · Roll Calendar · Tool Tips

    Position & Roll

    The position gets built. Working as curve, the student reads forward curves for crude, natural gas, copper and corn and explains the shape of each; as roll, chooses which contract to hold and when to roll, with the option of going further out to reduce the cost; as position, sizes the exposure and places the collateral. The position is submitted with the expected roll yield stated.

  3. 3

    Stage 3 · 55 min

    Live Curves · Roll Costs · Inventory Data · Live Scores

    The Curve Flip

    A cold quarter draws down natural gas inventories and that curve flips from contango into backwardation, while crude's contango steepens. The spot prices of both finish the quarter within one per cent of where they started, and the two positions return plus seven and minus nine per cent, entirely through the roll.

  4. 4

    Stage 4 · 40 min

    Review Questions · Position Record · Return Attribution · Review Pack

    Desk Review

    Students are asked to decompose the quarter's return into spot, roll and collateral, explain why two flat commodities produced opposite results, say whether the natural gas flip was predictable from the inventory data, and state what they would hold differently.

  5. 5

    Stage 5 · No limit

    Winners · Completion Summary

    Debriefing

    Students review their own position, compare roll schedules across the cohort, revisit the attribution that separated them and reflect on the feedback. Winners and the completion summary give you a structure for the discussion.

What the experience looks like

The student interface carries the curves, the roll schedule and the reasoning. The professor panel carries the timeline, the controls and every individual position.

Curves

Students work commodity by commodity, with the spot price, the forward price and the roll yield the shape implies side by side, and a written reason required for every position in a steeply contangoed market.

Curve Flip

The two return columns are the point. Spot finished the quarter within one per cent for both, and the positions returned plus seven and minus nine per cent entirely through the roll.

Professor Controls

Your view. Adjust any stage timing, start or stop the session, and watch which students rolled into the front month of the steepest contango on the board.

See how this simulation fits your module

Explore the student and professor experience, and discuss timing, setup and syllabus fit.

Where it fits your syllabus

It works best as the session that separates a commodity's price from a commodity position's return.

Teach before it

What a futures contract is and that it expires. Forward curves, roll yield, storage and convenience yield are explained inside the activity.

Where it sits

Mid module, typically weeks five to nine, once futures have been introduced.

What it sets up

Commodity index products, hedging for producers and consumers, energy markets, inflation hedging, and any assessment asking students to evaluate a commodity allocation.

The commodities course guide sets out where it sits in a full module.

What students get wrong

The three mistakes students make on this case, and what each one gives you in the debrief. Our simulations are designed around them: read the learning science behind it.

1

They assume the index tracks the commodity

A long commodity index position is a sequence of futures rolls, not a holding of the physical. Students who expect the return to match the spot price change are surprised by a double-digit gap in a single quarter, which is the whole reason the roll is taught at all.

2

They read contango as an expectation of higher prices

An upward sloping curve is mostly storage cost and funding, not a forecast. Treating it as a prediction leads students to buy the commodities with the steepest contango, which are precisely the ones whose roll will cost the most.

3

They ignore where on the curve they are rolling

Rolling into the front month in a steep contango is the most expensive point on the curve, and moving further out can cut the cost substantially at the price of a less responsive position. Students who never consider the choice pay the maximum roll cost by default.

How to debrief it

The debrief runs itself. Every student sees their results, the cohort comparison and the decisions that produced them, with nothing for you to prepare. If you would rather lead the discussion, these questions work straight from a slide, and they use what your cohort actually did.

  • Which commodity had the steepest contango, and what did twelve months of it cost?
  • Who called the natural gas flip from the inventory data?
  • Decompose your quarter: how much was spot, roll and collateral?
  • Who rolled further out to cut the cost, and what did they give up?
  • If you wanted commodity exposure for a year, would you take it through futures at all?

Assess the return decomposition, not just the total

Assessment is optional. Run the simulation ungraded as an applied activity, or use platform data as supporting evidence. Every student generates a curve reading, a roll schedule, a position, a return decomposition and written rationales. Because the simulation is single-player, every input belongs to one named student, so there is no group-work marking to untangle. All of it exports as CSV or PDF, per student, so you can assess reasoning rather than a result.

What professors can assess

  • Whether the student decomposes the return into spot, roll and collateral rather than reporting a total
  • Whether the curve shape was explained through storage and convenience yield rather than as a forecast

How to interpret the score

  • A strong quarter from a backwardated commodity is not evidence of a good decision
  • Use the leaderboard for cohort comparison, not for grading

On generative AI: written rationales are exactly what marking teams now worry about. Because every rationale here is tied to a roll decision the student made inside the platform, with the realised attribution sitting next to it, the reasoning can be checked against the evidence rather than taken on trust.

Low risk to try with a class

Students rate it

93% of students rate Finsimco simulations Excellent, across more than 30,000 responses.

You are not on your own

Teaching notes, a setup and facilitation guide and a gameflow diagram come with it, and we support your first delivery directly.

No grading commitment

Run it ungraded the first time. Assessment is optional and can be added once you have seen how your cohort responds.

A bad session is recoverable

Pause or stop at any point and resume later without losing submitted data, so an overrun costs you a timetable slot, not the activity.

What AACSB and AMBA say about simulations

Ron Tuninga, Managing Director for EMEA at AACSB, and Victor Hedenberg, Membership Director at AMBA, on why simulation-based learning belongs in business education. Watch both interviews.

FAQs

Get the course fit sheet

A one-page summary of this simulation, covering stages and timings, roles, concepts, learning outcomes and the debrief questions, plus a full sample teaching pack from one of our live simulations, so you can see exactly what you would be running.

Book a Demo

During the call, we can:

  • Show the student and professor experience
  • Discuss format, timing and syllabus fit
  • Walk through setup, live delivery and optional assessment evidence
  • Answer questions from your module team